{"updated":"2026-10-26","title":"September was the preview. Rachel was the first act.","lead":"Hurricane Marie's swell, Aug 28 to Sep 15, before El Niño had properly started. Then Tropical Storm Rachel, Oct 9 to 12, on a sea already running higher than the tide table. Every one of these lots has a house behind the seawall with the same question: what did the water do inside?","king_tides":[["2026-10-26","2026-10-28"],["2026-11-24","2026-11-26"],["2026-12-23","2026-12-25"],["2027-01-21","2027-01-22"]],"conditions":[{"label":"NOAA El Niño Advisory","date":"Oct 8","text":"strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through Jan–Mar (<i>>83%</i>); <i>83%</i> chance Oct–Dec is the strongest since 1950 · next update Nov 12","url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml"},{"label":"Tropical Storm Rachel","date":"Oct 9–12","text":"Newport Beach's morning tide ran <i>20 in</i> above the table; Long Beach Peninsula and Capistrano Beach red-tagged again","url":"https://abc7.com/story/high-tide-tropical-storm-rachel-floods-newport-beach-streets-residents-brace-more-impacts/19925067/"},{"label":"Kelvin wave","date":"October","text":"sea level <i>+4 in</i> now, about <i>+6 in</i> later this month, holding for months","url":"https://www.accuweather.com/en/climate/kelvin-wave-heads-for-us-west-coast-adding-to-californias-coastal-erosion-threat/1942345"},{"label":"California El Niño emergency","date":"Sep 21","text":"emergency coastal permits decided within 24 h","url":"https://beacon.ca.gov/news/governor-newsom-proclaims-state-of-emergency-to-bolster-statewide-el-nino-preparedness-protect-california/"},{"label":"King tides","date":"","text":"Oct 26–28 · Nov 24–26 · Dec 23–25 · Jan 21–22","countdown":true,"url":"https://www.coastal.ca.gov/kingtides/participate.html"}],"entries":[{"date":"2026-08-28","place":"Capistrano Beach, Beach Road","text":"First red tag. A deck destroyed, and coastal erosion undermined the slab foundation beneath it.","sources":[{"name":"ABC7","url":"https://abc7.com/post/more-capistrano-beach-homes-at-risk-following-storm-10-declared-unsafe-residents-demand-action/19833139/"},{"name":"NTD","url":"https://www.ntd.com/dana-point-declares-local-emergency-as-at-least-16-beach-road-homes-damaged-by-hurricane-marie-swells_1172068.html"}]},{"date":"2026-09-08","place":"Malibu, Sea Level Drive","text":"Driveways collapsed into a 30-foot sinkhole; a gas line ruptured; five homes red-tagged, more than 30 people evacuated.","sources":[{"name":"CBS Los Angeles","url":"https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/malibu-driveways-collapsed-coastal-erosion-sea-level-dr/"}]},{"date":"2026-09-08","place":"Long Beach Peninsula","text":"About 20 homes evacuated. The wooden seawall and boardwalk breached; up to 10 feet of sand depth gone.","sources":[{"name":"Long Beach Post","url":"https://lbpost.com/news/hurricane-evacuations-waves-long-beach-damage/"},{"name":"LAist","url":"https://laist.com/news/long-beachs-peninsula-keeps-washing-away-the-fix-could-cost-hundreds-of-millions"}]},{"date":"2026-09-10","place":"Laguna Beach, Ocean Way and Lagunita","text":"Local emergency. Six oceanfront homes yellow-tagged with compromised seawalls.","sources":[{"name":"NTD","url":"https://www.ntd.com/laguna-beach-declares-emergency-after-hurricane-swells-damage-sea-walls_1172289.html"},{"name":"AccuWeather","url":"https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/powerful-waves-erase-southern-california-beaches-threaten-homes/1933391"}]},{"date":"2026-09-10","place":"Carlsbad","text":"Bluff-stabilization emergency declared to extend the revetment before El Niño storms.","sources":[{"name":"KPBS","url":"https://www.kpbs.org/news/public-safety/2026/09/10/carlsbad-declares-emergency-for-bluff-stabilization-ahead-of-winter-el-nino-storms"}]},{"date":"2026-09-15","place":"Capistrano Beach","text":"Ten homes red-tagged, seven yellow-tagged. Seawalls failed, patios went into the ocean.","sources":[{"name":"ABC7","url":"https://abc7.com/post/more-capistrano-beach-homes-at-risk-following-storm-10-declared-unsafe-residents-demand-action/19833139/"},{"name":"CBS Los Angeles","url":"https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/dana-point-high-surf-waves-homes-destroyed-damaged-beach-street/"}]},{"date":"2026-09-21","place":"Statewide","text":"El Niño state of emergency. Emergency coastal permits now decided within 24 hours; they last 120 days and the follow-up permit still has to be won.","sources":[{"name":"Governor's proclamation","url":"https://beacon.ca.gov/news/governor-newsom-proclaims-state-of-emergency-to-bolster-statewide-el-nino-preparedness-protect-california/"},{"name":"Coastal Commission","url":"https://www.coastal.ca.gov/climate/extreme-weather/el-nino/"}]},{"date":"2026-09-28","place":"Malibu","text":"Local emergency declared two weeks before any storm, naming coastal erosion and flooding as the El Niño hazards to prepare for.","sources":[{"name":"LAist","url":"https://laist.com/news/climate-environment/socal-beach-towns-walloped-by-waves-from-tropical-storm-rachel"}]},{"date":"2026-10-01","place":"San Clemente and Newport Beach","text":"San Clemente puts its sand deficit at 2 to 4 million cubic yards and sends Measure M, a 1% sales tax for sand and fire protection, to November's ballot. Newport Beach brings its replenishment forward: about 100,000 cubic yards of Santa Ana River sand to West Newport later this month.","sources":[{"name":"Voice of OC","url":"https://voiceofoc.org/2026/10/a-tale-of-two-shores-san-clemente-newport-beach-and-the-search-for-sand-in-oc/"}]},{"date":"2026-10-06","place":"The whole coast","text":"The Kelvin wave arrives. Sea level off California up to 4 inches above normal in early October, about 6 inches later in the month, under every tide that follows.","sources":[{"name":"AccuWeather","url":"https://www.accuweather.com/en/climate/kelvin-wave-heads-for-us-west-coast-adding-to-californias-coastal-erosion-threat/1942345"}]},{"date":"2026-10-08","place":"NOAA","text":"El Niño Advisory, strengthening: a strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely through January–March (more than 83%), Niño-3.4 at +2.1 °C, and an 83% chance that October–December exceeds every El Niño since 1950. Next update Nov 12.","sources":[{"name":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center","url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml"}]},{"date":"2026-10-09","place":"Newport Beach, Balboa Peninsula","text":"Local emergency. The morning high tide came in 20 inches above the prediction, which the city's utilities director called record-breaking; 15 to 20 blocks flooded, vehicles stranded, water at front doors.","sources":[{"name":"ABC7","url":"https://abc7.com/story/high-tide-tropical-storm-rachel-floods-newport-beach-streets-residents-brace-more-impacts/19925067/"}]},{"date":"2026-10-09","place":"Long Beach Peninsula","text":"Rachel's swell broke through the boardwalk bulkhead that Hurricane Marie had stripped of sand. Nine buildings, 13 addresses, red-tagged on Seaside Walk; 64th to 66th Place evacuated. The City fast-tracks 50,000 to 100,000 cubic yards of trucked sand and an $11.4 million dredge of about 415,000 cubic yards.","sources":[{"name":"Long Beach Post, Oct 9","url":"https://lbpost.com/news/peninsula-flooding-long-beach-boardwalk-hurricane-rachel/"},{"name":"Long Beach Post, Oct 11","url":"https://lbpost.com/news/el-nino/extensive-damage-peninsula-hurricane-rachel-cleanup/"}]},{"date":"2026-10-12","place":"Capistrano Beach, Beach Road","text":"Another home went into the surf; seven red-tagged and thirteen yellow-tagged after Rachel. The houses sit on slabs on sand, and the sand is going.","sources":[{"name":"ABC7","url":"https://abc7.com/story/dana-point-homes-risk-collapse-high-surf-tropical-storm-rachel-erodes-orange-county-coast/19932363/"}]},{"date":"2026-10-14","place":"Long Beach Peninsula","text":"A crane set about 74 sandbags of 3,000 pounds each, and staging began for the accelerated dredge. The City's Oct 16 count: seven buildings, 12 residences, red-tagged and two yellow-tagged.","sources":[{"name":"City of Long Beach, Oct 16","url":"https://www.longbeach.gov/emergency"}]},{"date":"2026-10-19","place":"Newport Beach","text":"Local emergency ahead of the Oct 26–28 king tides, with ocean levels running 18 to 22 inches above predicted tides. The council approved the contract for about 100,000 cubic yards of Santa Ana River sand between 36th and 62nd streets.","sources":[{"name":"MyNewsLA, Oct 19","url":"https://mynewsla.com/business/2026/10/19/newport-beach-declares-local-emergency-ahead-of-king-tides/"},{"name":"FOX 11 Los Angeles, Oct 20","url":"https://www.foxla.com/news/newport-beach-declares-local-emergency-ahead-king-tides-storm-approaches"},{"name":"City of Newport Beach, Oct 16","url":"https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/CANEWPORTBEACH/bulletins/42f7f79"}]},{"date":"2026-10-19","place":"Malibu, Westward Beach Road","text":"Overnight erosion on Oct 19 closed Westward Beach Road at Birdview Avenue; a Los Angeles County contractor placed rock and the City reported the road open again on Oct 20. The road beyond the pay gate and the Point Dume Beach lot have been closed since Aug 1.","sources":[{"name":"City of Malibu Alert Center, Oct 20","url":"https://www.malibucity.org/alertcenter.aspx"},{"name":"Hoodline, Oct 20","url":"https://hoodline.com/2026/10/malibu-shuts-another-stretch-of-westward-beach-road-as-erosion-eats-the-pavement/"}]},{"date":"2026-10-19","place":"Laguna Beach, El Morro","text":"Caltrans filed an emergency notice for the Crystal Cove Coastal Access Preservation Project: temporary slope and roadway stabilization and wave-energy-dispersing devices on Coast Highway near Morro Ridge Road, under the Sep 21 state emergency. One southbound lane has been closed since the bluff cracked on Oct 13, and the beach below is closed.","sources":[{"name":"CEQAnet, Notice of Exemption 2026100640, Oct 19","url":"https://ceqanet.lci.ca.gov/2026100640"},{"name":"Patch Laguna Beach, Oct 13","url":"https://patch.com/california/lagunabeach/massive-crack-under-pch-draws-concern-across-coast-5-things-know"},{"name":"Surfer, Oct 20","url":"https://www.surfer.com/news/crystal-cove-cliff-collapse-video"}]},{"date":"2026-10-22","place":"San Clemente, rail corridor","text":"Metrolink suspended Orange County Line service between Laguna Niguel/Mission Viejo and Oceanside for Oct 26–30, ahead of the king tides on the beachfront tracks at San Clemente; trains run only between Los Angeles Union Station and Laguna Niguel/Mission Viejo, with no replacement buses. In September high tides and waves overtopped the same tracks and stopped Metrolink, Amtrak and freight service.","sources":[{"name":"NBC Los Angeles, Oct 22","url":"https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/king-tides-orange-county-newport-beach-metrolink-san-clemente/3959548/"},{"name":"MyNewsLA, Oct 22","url":"https://mynewsla.com/government/2026/10/22/metrolink-to-suspend-service-near-san-clemente-monday-amid-high-tides/"}]},{"date":"2026-10-25","place":"The whole coast","text":"The Weather Service put the Orange and San Diego County coasts under a coastal flood warning and the Los Angeles and Ventura County beaches under a coastal flood advisory, Sunday 5 a.m. through Thursday 1 p.m., for morning high tides of 7.5 to 8 feet Monday through Wednesday, running 1 to 1.7 feet above the tide table; its statement said \"numerous roads may be closed\" and low-lying homes and businesses would be inundated. The tides could challenge the San Pedro record of 7.93 feet, set Jan 10, 2005.","sources":[{"name":"NWS San Diego coastal flood warning, Oct 26 (relay)","url":"https://www.defconlevel.com/alert/2026-10-26-nws-noaa-weather-coastal-flood-warning-issued-october-26-at-1-28am-pdt-until-october-29-at-1-00pm-pdt-by-nws-san-diego-ca"},{"name":"Times of San Diego, Oct 25","url":"https://timesofsandiego.com/weather/2026/10/25/incoming-high-tides-could-produce-significant-flooding-and-road-closures-nws/"},{"name":"NBC Los Angeles, Oct 25","url":"https://www.nbclosangeles.com/weather-news/southern-california-record-high-tides-possible/3960543/"},{"name":"Los Angeles Times via Yahoo, Oct 25","url":"https://www.yahoo.com/news/weather-news/articles/socal-coast-braces-high-tides-223756296.html"},{"name":"ABC7, Oct 25","url":"https://abc7.com/post/long-beach-braces-possible-record-high-tides-week-coastal-flood-advisory-effect-thursday/19978319/"}]}]}